Wednesday, December 10, 2008

State of Economic Crisis is finally admitted by the Government


The Estonian President, Toomas Hendrik Ilves, finally admitted that Estonia was affected by an economi crisis. It is a big change in his tone and communication since one year ago in his New Year's Eve speech he said: "Don’t believe those who talk about crisis and preach disaster. They are exaggerating, misleading and scaring people. They are wrong". One year after, everybody knows what happened to Estonia...

That is a drastic change in communication tactics but at least the Estonian government is back to reality, hopefully for the best.

PS: sarcastic comment written by Dag on BBN: "Just for your information: I hereby publicly admit that the earth is revolving around the sun." :D
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Le Gouvernement Estonien Admet (enfin!) Publiquement l'Etat de Crise Economique

Toomas Hendrik Ilves, le Président Estonien, a finalement admis que le pays était en proie à une crise économique majeure après des mois de dénigrement et une politique de communication basée sur une incapacité (ou plutôt une absence de volonté) à voir la réalité en face.
En effet, dans son speech du 31 Décembre 2007, le Président annonçait: "Ne croyez pas ceux qui parlent de crise et prêche le désastre. Ils exagèrent dans le but d'effrayer et décourager les gens. Ils ont tout faux". Un an a passé, la situation a bien changé et le discours évolué... pour le meilleur espérons.

PS: commentaire sarcastique de la part de Dag sur BBN: "Pour info: Je déclare ici-même publiquement que la terre tourne autour du soleil" :D

9 comments - React:

Anonymous said...

One year ago, is one year ago. This crisis didn't exist one year ago. Or are our leaders supposed to be able to predict the future?

Besides, nobody outside of Estonia knows what happens in Estonia. The only crisis everyone knows about is the one caused by failing banks in the United States and western Europe.

Guillaume said...

Hello anonymous.
I strongly disagree with that as the effects of the crisis started around June 2007 and it was clearly here at the end of 2007.
"The only crisis everyone knows about is the one caused by failing banks in the United States and western Europe." Too easy. Partly due to that only. In Estonia, government policy during the growth years and the will not to limit excessive consumption caused that recession - swedish banks lending too much too easily.

Marianne said...

Crisis was predictable even since august 2006 ! A french economist is quoting 2 articles of "The Economist" who were describing what was going to happen 2 years later .. ( sorry ,ça doit être plein de fautes )
Une telle crise , même si le point de départ est aux Etats Unis , à une époque où malheureusement l'économie est devenue mondiale , fait tache d'huile et affecte nécessairement les économies de tous les pays sans exception ! Les gouvernements de tous ces pays ne pouvaient pas l'ignorer depuis au moins un an !

Voici l' article d'un économiste français qui se réfère à une édition de "The Economist" du 24/08/2006 :
http://www.leconomiste-notes.fr/dotclear/index.php?2008/10/28/124-crises-pour-en-finri-avec-les-donneurs-de-lecons
Voici ce qu'il a écrit le 28 octobre 2008 :

"Depuis le début de la crise financière, une chose m'énerve prodigieusement : les « intellectuels » qui viennent sur les plateaux dire qu'ils l'avaient prévue depuis deux ans, et qui présentent ça comme une extraordinaire marque de lucidité. Non seulement c'est malhonnête de leur part, mais en plus cela ne révèle que l'ignorance de leurs interlocuteurs quand ils gobent cette posture. En fait, une lecture superficielle de The Economist chaque semaine suffit à se rendre compte que non seulement la crise était prévisible, mais que la seule question était de savoir quand elle allait se produire.
Pour s'en convaincre, il suffit de faire cette recherche. Quelques résultats choisis (malheureusement plus disponibles en version intégrale) :
Édition du 24/08/2006 (il y a plus de deux ans, donc), deux articles qui décrivaient ce qui allait se passer
Wobbles in America's housing market
America's house-price bubble
Et un avertissement avancé dans l'édition du 6/11/2003, concernant l'instabilité des bases de la croissance américaine.
L'anticipation de cette crise, donc, loin d'être une position marginale, était connue et acceptée comme une connaissance commune, au moins parmi le lectorat de cet hebdomadaire... qui manifestement a encore trop peu de lecteurs en France pour qu'on y sache ce qu'est une presse économique de qualité."

Anonymous said...

If the crisis was so predictable, why didn't everyone pull their deposits from Icelandic banks earlier? Why didn't western governments intervene in their banking sector before? There was a mild crisis before august 2008, but it got worse due to the failing banks in the US and western Europe.

Doesn't seem to me there is anything Estonia could have done to prevent US and west-European banks from failing. Estonia has no choice but to weather the storm, it can't isolate itself from the world because it is too small.

If Estonia would have slowed down consumption prior to the crisis, it would have made absolutely no difference now. The crisis would still be upon us. The effect of Estonian policy is at most marginal given how strongly this economy is tied to the outside world.

There is really no need to exaggerate the way you do on your blog and pretend that all the blame for this crisis lies with Estonia. A slightly more balanced view would do wonders.

Guillaume said...

if someone is exagerating, I think it is you anonymous.
Nowhere in my post I was talking about the causes of the crisis. you started to mention that by yourself...
then I said that using the global crisis as the only excuse is easy. Of course Estonia being so small is affected by it but there are also local causes. I think that rigorous measures would have helped to alleviate the current pain. why? like it happened in the US, over-consumption with "imaginary" money leads to great disorder. That s my opinion, you can disagree, but the purpose of a blog is to talk.

Anonymous said...

Above you write:

"Nowhere in my post I was talking about the causes of the crisis. you started to mention that by yourself..."

I didn't start about the causes, you did in your first reaction to my comment, where you claimed:

"In Estonia, government policy during the growth years and the will not to limit excessive consumption caused that recession"

Sounds to me that you are punting the blame for the recession entirely with the Estonian government...

C.Q.F.D.

Guillaume said...

you're funny... and you should learn to read or be less selective:

1/ "I didn't start about the causes, you did in your first reaction to my comment" YES, you are supporting what I said. In my post I didnt talk about the causes, you did in your first comment. END

2/ you forgot to read on the line before: "Partly due to that only"... no comment!

thx for your extremely rewarding comments.

Ahmet said...

Clearly you can't read either, my first comment doesn't mention the causes, it only mentions that people know nothing about the Estonian situation.

Guillaume said...

oh really! so I will play your silly game too :
"The only crisis everyone knows about is the one caused by failing banks in the United States and western Europe."

that comment doesnt mention the causes.. ?
please stop polluting me. ciao